The regional GDP of Donetsk and Luhansk regions has fallen by 60% in UAH and by 75% in foreign currency since 2014, according to the study "Social consequences of forced migration in Ukraine: Risks of marginalization and social exclusion" conducted by an interdisciplinary team of scientists from the Oxford, Birmingham and Ukrainian Catholic Universities.
“This led to a decrease in the proportion of Ukraine's controlled part of the Donbas in the Ukrainian economy to 7% of Ukraine's GDP: 5.8 - in the Donetsk region and 1.3% in the Luhansk region,” said one of the authors, associate professor of St. Peter's College of Oxford University Vlad Mikhnenko.
According to the research, both in the territory controlled by Ukraine, and on that captured by Russia, a total decline is observed in foreign economic activity of areas affected by Russian aggression. In particular, the exports of the Donetsk region fell by 66%, and in Luhansk it has generally terminated.
According to Mikhnenko, production in the territories captured by Russia especially fell.
“Today 79.5% of the industrial production of the Donetsk region is produced in the territories controlled by Ukraine, and only 21.1% - in uncontrolled territories. In the Luhansk region the situation is similar. 70% are produced in controlled areas and 30% on the uncontrolled, although earlier the production there was twice as big,” Vlad Mikhnenko reported.
This led to unemployment increasing to 15% in Donetsk and 17.4% in Luhansk regions. The region's depletion also affected the drop in demand for consumer goods, which is only 20% of the pre-war level.
Earlier, April 12, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko at the XI Kyiv Security Forum said that if the border of the occupied territories with Russia is blocked, peace will return to the Donbas in a few weeks.